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Analysis of the long-term variations in precipitation and snow depth in the northeast of Russia during the period of 1966–2014

L.N. Vasilevskaya *, Yu.V. Stochkute**

Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, 690950 Russia

E-mail: *lubavass@mail.ru, **julias76@mail.ru

Received July 8, 2017

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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the interannual variability of atmospheric precipitation and snow depth in the northeast of Russia (Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, Magadan Region, Eastern Yakutia) for the period of 1966–2014. The following tasks are set in accordance with the above purpose: to investigate the atmospheric precipitation regime, as well as its rates and nature of changes in it; to reveal the relationship between the precipitation regime and snow depth.

The monthly amount of atmospheric precipitation registered at 26 meteorological stations during 1966–2014 and the snow depth measured daily at four stations (Ostrovnoe, Markovo, Magadan, and Omolon) during 1966–2012 are the source data (www.meteo.ru) for the research. All the initial series have been subjected to statistical processing. Linear trends have been constructed. Their significance has been estimated by the coefficient of determination (R2) at the confidence probability level of 95%. Correlation analysis of the atmospheric precipitation and snow depth has been carried out.

All conclusions are based on the statistical results of the investigation. A tendency of decreasing annual precipitation over a larger area with the highest value in the east (up to 8 mm /10 years) has been revealed. A significant contribution to this reduction is made by the precipitation of warm seasons (spring–summer) with the exception of their almost widespread increase at the end of summer. In the winter time, the amount of precipitation is stable in the entire northeast of Russia (except the southern regions), especially since the middle of 1980s.

The snow depth in the north and south of the territory increases steadily. Unstable declines have been found in the east. In the west, the values of snow depth remain almost unchanged. The nature of variations in the snow depth does not agree with that of changes in the amount of solid precipitation, especially in the west and the south of the territory. This is due to the multifactorial formation of the snow cover.

Keywords: atmospheric precipitation, snow cover, snow depth, statistical analysis, trend assessment, correlation analysis

Figure Captions

Fig. 1. Schematic map for the location of weather stations (weather stations, where the observations of the snow cover were performed are given in frames).

Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of the long-term average seasonal and annual precipitation amounts (1966–2014).

Fig. 3. Annual variations in the precipitation amount in different areas.

Fig. 4. Recurrence of three classes of seasonal and annual precipitation at the studied stations. Horizontal axis – stations numbered according to Fig. 1.

Fig. 5. Spatial-temporal distribution of the anomalies (% of the normal value) in precipitation amount (vertical axis – years, horizontal axis – stations numbered according to Fig. 1).

Fig. 6. Distribution of the atmospheric pressure anomalies at the sea level and the H500 geopotential on January of 1998 and 1991. X-axis – the longitude from 145?E to 170? W, Y-axis – the latitude from 45? N to 75? N.

Fig. 7. Distribution of the atmospheric pressure anomalies at the sea level on April of 1984 and 1988.  X-axis – the longitude from 145?E to 170? W, Y-axis – the latitude from 45? N to 75? N.

Fig. 8. Distribution of the atmospheric pressure anomalies at the sea level on July 1989 and 1991. X-axis – the longitude from 145?E to 170? W, Y-axis – the latitude from 45? N to 75? N.

Fig. 9. Distribution of the atmospheric pressure anomalies at the sea level on October of 1972 and 1976. X-axis – the longitude from 145?E to 170? W, Y-axis – the latitude from 45? N to 75? N.

Fig. 10. Spatial distribution of the slope coefficients of annual precipitation linear trend (mm/10 years) in 1966–2014.

Fig. 11. a–d – spatial distribution of the slope coefficients of annual precipitation linear trend (mm/10 years) during 1966–2014; e, f – accumulated anomalies of precipitation on January (horizontal axis – years; vertical axis – accumulated anomalies, mm).

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For citation: Vasilevskaya L.N., Stochkute Yu.V. Analysis of the long-term variations in precipitation and snow depth in the northeast of Russia during the period of 1966–2014. Uchenye Zapiski Kazanskogo Universiteta. Seriya Estestvennye Nauki, 2017, vol. 159, no. 4, pp. 681–699. (In Russian)


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Analysis of the long-term variations in precipitation and snow depth in the northeast of Russia during the period of 1966–2014