Analysis of the long-term variations in precipitation and snow depth in the northeast of Russia during the period of 1966–2014

L.N. Vasilevskaya *, Yu.V. Stochkute**

Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, 690950 Russia

E-mail: *lubavass@mail.ru, **julias76@mail.ru

Received July 8, 2017

Full text PDF

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the interannual variability of atmospheric precipitation and snow depth in the northeast of Russia (Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, Magadan Region, Eastern Yakutia) for the period of 1966–2014. The following tasks are set in accordance with the above purpose: to investigate the atmospheric precipitation regime, as well as its rates and nature of changes in it; to reveal the relationship between the precipitation regime and snow depth.

The monthly amount of atmospheric precipitation registered at 26 meteorological stations during 1966–2014 and the snow depth measured daily at four stations (Ostrovnoe, Markovo, Magadan, and Omolon) during 1966–2012 are the source data (www.meteo.ru) for the research. All the initial series have been subjected to statistical processing. Linear trends have been constructed. Their significance has been estimated by the coefficient of determination (R2) at the confidence probability level of 95%. Correlation analysis of the atmospheric precipitation and snow depth has been carried out.

All conclusions are based on the statistical results of the investigation. A tendency of decreasing annual precipitation over a larger area with the highest value in the east (up to 8 mm /10 years) has been revealed. A significant contribution to this reduction is made by the precipitation of warm seasons (spring–summer) with the exception of their almost widespread increase at the end of summer. In the winter time, the amount of precipitation is stable in the entire northeast of Russia (except the southern regions), especially since the middle of 1980s.

The snow depth in the north and south of the territory increases steadily. Unstable declines have been found in the east. In the west, the values of snow depth remain almost unchanged. The nature of variations in the snow depth does not agree with that of changes in the amount of solid precipitation, especially in the west and the south of the territory. This is due to the multifactorial formation of the snow cover.

Keywords: atmospheric precipitation, snow cover, snow depth, statistical analysis, trend assessment, correlation analysis

Figure Captions

Fig. 1. Schematic map for the location of weather stations (weather stations, where the observations of the snow cover were performed are given in frames).

Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of the long-term average seasonal and annual precipitation amounts (1966–2014).

Fig. 3. Annual variations in the precipitation amount in different areas.

Fig. 4. Recurrence of three classes of seasonal and annual precipitation at the studied stations. Horizontal axis – stations numbered according to Fig. 1.

Fig. 5. Spatial-temporal distribution of the anomalies (% of the normal value) in precipitation amount (vertical axis – years, horizontal axis – stations numbered according to Fig. 1).

Fig. 6. Distribution of the atmospheric pressure anomalies at the sea level and the H500 geopotential on January of 1998 and 1991. X-axis – the longitude from 145?E to 170? W, Y-axis – the latitude from 45? N to 75? N.

Fig. 7. Distribution of the atmospheric pressure anomalies at the sea level on April of 1984 and 1988.  X-axis – the longitude from 145?E to 170? W, Y-axis – the latitude from 45? N to 75? N.

Fig. 8. Distribution of the atmospheric pressure anomalies at the sea level on July 1989 and 1991. X-axis – the longitude from 145?E to 170? W, Y-axis – the latitude from 45? N to 75? N.

Fig. 9. Distribution of the atmospheric pressure anomalies at the sea level on October of 1972 and 1976. X-axis – the longitude from 145?E to 170? W, Y-axis – the latitude from 45? N to 75? N.

Fig. 10. Spatial distribution of the slope coefficients of annual precipitation linear trend (mm/10 years) in 1966–2014.

Fig. 11. a–d – spatial distribution of the slope coefficients of annual precipitation linear trend (mm/10 years) during 1966–2014; e, f – accumulated anomalies of precipitation on January (horizontal axis – years; vertical axis – accumulated anomalies, mm).

References

  1. The Second Assessment Report about Climate Change and Its Impact on the Territory of the Russian Federation. 2012. 1004 p. Available at: URL: http://downloads.igce.ru/ publications/OD_2_2014/v2014/. (In Russian)
  2. Kononova N.K. The influence of atmospheric circulation on the formation of snow cover in northeastern Siberia. Led Sneg, 2012, vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 38–53. doi: 10.17073/0368-0797-2015-2-121-126. (In Russian)
  3. Climatic Atlas of the USSR. Vol. 1. Davitaya F.F. (Ed.). Moscow, Gidrometeoizdat, 1960. 187 p. (In Russian)
  4. Handbook of Climate of the USSR. Part 2: Air and Soil Temperature. Issue 33: Chukotka National Okrug and Magadan Region. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1966. 287 p. (In Russian)
  5. Bryazgin N.N., Dement'ev A.A. Hazardous Meteorological Phenomena in Russian Arctic Region. St. Petersburg, Gidrometeoizdat, 1996. 154 p. (In Russian)
  6. Zimich P.I. Atmospheric Processes and Weather in East Arctic. Vladivostok, Dal'nauka, 1998. 238 p. (In Russian)
  7. Chernysheva L.S., Platonova V.A. Calculation and Interpretation of the Basic Climatic Parameters of Individual Meteorological Quantities. Vladivostok, Izd. Dal'nevost. Fed. Univ., 2009. 84 p. (In Russian)
  8. Nikitin A.Y., Sosunova I.A. Analysis and Prediction of Time Series in Environmental Observations and Experiments. Irkutsk, Izd. Irkutsk. Gos. Pedagog. Inst., 2003. 81p. (In Russian)
  9. Manual for Forecasts. Section 2. Part VI. Moscow, Otd. Gidrometeoizdata, 1986. 28 p. (In Russian)
  10. Perevedentsev Yu.P. Climate Theory. Kazan, Kazan. Gos. Univ., 2009. 504 p. (In Russian)
  11. Stochkute Y.V., Vasilevskaya L.N. Changes in the Temperature-Humidity Regime in the Extreme Northeast of Russia. Irkutsk, Izd. Inst. Geogr. im. V. B. Sochavy Sib. Otd. Ross. Akad. Nauk, 2015, pp. 157–159. (In Russian)
  12. Girs A.A., Kondratovich K.V. Methods of Long-Term Weather Forecasts. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1978. 344 p. (In Russian)
  13. Bagrov N.A., Kondratovich K.V., Ped' D.A., Ugryumov A.I. Long-Term Meteorological Forecasts. Kondratovich K.V. (Ed.). Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1985. 248 p. (In Russian)
  14. Stochkute Yu.V. Statistical characteristics of the snow depth in the extreme northeast of Russia. Materialy region. nauch.-prakt. konf. studentov, aspirantov i molodykh uchenykh po estestv. naukam [Proc. Reg. Sci.-Pract. Conf. on Natural Sciences for Students, Postgraduate Students, and Young Scientists]. Vladivostok, Izd. Dal'nevost. Fed. Univ., 2016, pp. 339–342. Available at: https://www.dvfu.ru/upload/medialibrary/8c5/2016(1).pdf. (In Russian)
  15. Stochkute Yu.V., Vasilevskaya L.N. The Effect of Snow Depth on Soil Temperature Change in the Extreme Northeast of Russia. Sovremennye problemy regional'nogo razvitiya: Tezisy VI Mezhdunar. nauch. konf. [Modern Problems of Regional Development: Proc. VI Int. Sci. Conf.]. Frisman E.Ya. (Ed.). Birobidzhan, Inst. Kompleksnogo Anal. Reg. Probl. Dal'nevost. Otd. Ross. Akad. Nauk, 2016, pp. 163–166. Available at: https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=28137662&. (In Russian)
  16. Handbook on Short-Term Weather Forecasting. Part 2, Issue 5: Far East. Lisogurskii N.I. et al. (Eds.). Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1988. 177 p. (In Russian)
  17. Stochkute Yu.V., Vasilevskaya L.N. Long-Term Changes in Air and Soil Temperature in the Extreme Northeast of Russia. Geogr. Vestn., 2016, no. 2, pp. 85–97. (In Russian)


For citation: Vasilevskaya L.N., Stochkute Yu.V. Analysis of the long-term variations in precipitation and snow depth in the northeast of Russia during the period of 1966–2014. Uchenye Zapiski Kazanskogo Universiteta. Seriya Estestvennye Nauki, 2017, vol. 159, no. 4, pp. 681–699. (In Russian)


The content is available under the license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.