Chronology of the short-term climate change during the Holocene in Northwestern Russia and its correlation with the solar activity variations
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Chronology of the short-term climate change during the Holocene in Northwestern Russia and its correlation with the solar activity variations

Kh.A. Arslanov a*, V.A. Dergachev b**, F.E. Maksimov a***, J.V. Kudryavtsev b****

aSt. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, 199034 Russia

bIoffe Institute of Physics and Technology, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, 194021 Russia

E-mail: *arslanovkh@mail.ru, **v.dergachev@mail.ioffe.ru, ***maksimov-fedor@yandex.ru, ****igor.koudriavtsev@mail.ioffe.ru

Received December 5, 2020


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DOI: 10.26907/2542-064X.2022.1.135-165

For citation: Arslanov Kh.A., Dergachev V.A., Maksimov F.E., Kudryavtsev J.V. Chronology of the short-term climate change during the Holocene in Northwestern Russia and its correlation with the solar activity variations. Uchenye Zapiski Kazanskogo Universiteta. Seriya Estestvennye Nauki, 2022, vol. 164, no. 1, pp. 135–165. doi: 10.26907/2542-064X.2022.1.135-165. (In Russian)

Abstract

In 1996–1999, with our participation, a number of sections of the bog sediments in Northwestern Russia were studied to develop a chronology of the stages in the vegetation and climate evolution during the Holocene. However, the resulting chronology failed to take into account the error in determining the radiocarbon age arising due to the changes in the concentration of atmospheric radiocarbon. To allow for this error and make the chronology more precise and reliable, here we used C. Bronk Ramsey's model based on comparing the radiocarbon chronology of the surveyed section with the calibration curve chronology. Thanks to this model, we were able to calculate the calibrated (modeled) age span of the entire series of radiocarbon dates that had been previously obtained by us for samples taken from the thickest (6.4–6.7 m) sediment layers of the raised bogs Nikolsko-Lyutinskoe, Shirinsky Mokh, and Sambal'skoe in Northwestern Russia. The deviations of the average annual temperature from its present value (∆T, ?C), which had been represented in our earlier works as a graph, were converted into digital values and employed to define the modeled age that is most approximate to the calendar one and the corresponding values of ∆T for all the dated samples. The ∆T  values were reconstructed for a period of 200–11000 cal yr. The modeled age of the cooling and warming stages was compared with the age of the stages of low and high solar activity established by counting the number of sunspots and by determining the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes (14C in tree rings of known age and 10Be in polar glaciers). It was revealed that, within the error in the measured values of age and ∆T, the short-term changes in the average annual temperature occurred simultaneously at three sites of the bog sediments under consideration. The identified changes in the average annual temperature turned out to be synchronous with similar temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 1000 years, as well as with the chronologies developed from the GISP 2 polar ice cores and the mountain glacier advances. In general, the comparison of the modeled age of the cooling stages with the corresponding grand minima of solar activity demonstrates the synchronicity of the periods of cooling and low solar activity during the Holocene. It was concluded that short-term climate change depends mainly on variations in solar activity, which is important for predicting and modeling climate shifts.

Keywords: bog sediments, radiocarbon dating, age correction by modeling, paleoclimatic reconstruction, cosmogenic isotopes, correlation of climate change and solar activity

Acknowledgments. This study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project no. 18-05-00381).

Figure Captions

Fig. 1. IntCal13 calibration curve for the period of 0–14 000 years obtained by dating of the tree rings with known calendar age. Figure inserts show intervals where changes in the calibration curve can be seen: at the top – the interval of 2350–2750 cal yr, at the bottom – the interval of 2900–3100 cal yr. The red and green lines are the IntCal13 [7] and IntCal09 [8] calibration curve trends, respectively.

Fig. 2. Depth-age dependence for the peat samples from the Nikolsko-Lyutinskoe raised bog plotted using the OxCal v4.3.2 calibration program [10]; based on the IntCal 13 calibration curve [7]. C. Bronk Ramsey's P_Sequence model [9] was used (https://c14.arch.ox.ac.uk). The graphs show sample number (index), its uncalibrated radiocarbon age, and data-handling error. For example, LU-3440 R.Date (160,30) corresponds to LU-3440, 160 ? 30 yr in Table 1. Modeled age, cal yr, is the age calibrated with account of the short-term variations in atmospheric 14C and/or the short-term variations in 14C associated with other causes, such as possible allochthonous input of either younger (by tree roots) or older redeposited carbon.

Fig. 3. Reconstruction of the deviations of the average annual temperature from its current values (ΔT) for the period of 200–11000 years based on the analysis of the sediments in the bogs Nikolsko-Lyutinskoe (a), Shirinsky Mokh (b), and Sambal'skoe (c).

Fig. 4. a) Large-scale changes in the radiocarbon concentration [6] measured in the blocks of tree rings of known age for the last 11 785 years (arrows show the recurrence of these changes), the error of measurements is fractions of percent. b) maximum values of the 14C (Δ14C) concentration [12] over the last millennium that reoccur every 200 years, correspond to the known minima of solar activity: Wolf, Spörer, Maunder, dots show the experimental data.

Fig. 5. Number of sunspots, smoothed by decades, during the Holocene. The major outbursts coincide with the grand minima and maxima of solar activity [40].

Fig. 6. Changes in solar radiation, W/m2 (a); cosmic-ray neutron flux N, pulses per minute, (b); number of sunspots (c); 10Be concentration, 104/g, (d) [29]; concentration of radiocarbon Δ14C, %, (e) [30]. Maunder Minimum is a significant decrease in solar activity [30].

Fig. 7. a) Reconstruction of the air temperature in the Holocene based on the 18O oxygen isotope concentration in the GISP 2 ice core from in Greenland [38]: 1 – original data [38], 2 – data smoothed using a bandpass filter with a window of 500 years [24], 3 – (filtered) data smoothed using a bandpass filter with a window of 3000 years [24]. b) Reconstruction of the solar activity over the last 6000 years based on the rates of 14C and 10Be generation in natural archives [23]. The rate of 14C generation was calculated from the 14C concentration in tree rings with regard to the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the ocean [33]. The rate of 10Be generation was measured using the 10Be concentration in the GRIP ice core from Greenland [32]. Both curves were smoothed (filtered) using a bandpass filter with a window of 300–3000 years. c) Periods of cooling and warming in the Northern Hemisphere during the Holocene (over the last 11 000 years): 1 – the end of the last glacial age; 2 – Holocene climatic optimum; 3 – Roman climatic optimum; 4 – migration episode; 5 – medieval warm period; 6 – “little glacial age”; 7 – modern warming period [39].

Fig. 8. Timespan of the large-scale temperature reconstructions for the period of 1000–1979; bold curve 1 – arithmetic mean of five reconstructions after the smoothing [37]; thin curve 2 – reconstruction of the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere [36].

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