Changes in the climate conditions of the Volga Federal District during the 19th – 21st centuries

L.V. Shaikhulmardanova ^*, V.V. Guryanov^**, Yu.P. Perevedentsev^***

Kazan Federal University, Kazan, 420008 Russia

E-mail: ^*lyaisina.21@mail.ru, ^**Vladimir.Guryanov@kpfu.ru, ^***Yuri.Perevedentsev@kpfu.ru

Received May 21, 2018

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Abstract

The possibility to reproduce the surface air temperature using the climatic models of the CMIP5 projects has been discussed. Potential changes in the air temperature of the Volga Federal District (VFD) for the 21st century have been assessed based on an ensemble of 35 climatic models. The results of the calculations have demonstrated that the air temperature is expected to increase if the scenario of moderate anthropogenic impact (RCP4.5) on the VFD climatic system in the 21st century holds true. The air temperature growth is likely to increase during the winter and summer periods. In this case, the intensity of winter warming will be higher. The analysis of the amplitude and phase first harmonic of the annual fluctuations in the surface air temperature has been performed.

Keywords: climate changes, air temperature, CMIP5 project, climatic models, annual fluctuations in air temperatures

Acknowledgments. The work is performed according to the Russian Government Program of Competitive Growth of Kazan Federal University and supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (projects nos. 18-05-00721 and 18-45-160006).

Figure Captions

Fig. 1. Deviations of the average ensemble values of air temperature (?С) from the data of CRU observations in the VFD territory during the period of 1981–2000.

Fig. 2. Distribution of the anomalies of average air surface seasonal temperature (?С) in 2011–2030 and 2080–2099 during the winter (a, b) and summer (c, d) periods based on the assessments of the ensemble of 35 CMIP5 models for the RCP4.5 scenario.

Fig. 3. Distribution of the first harmonic amplitude (?С) of average air surface seasonal temperature along the VFD territory during the following periods: a) 2011–2030, b) 2080–2099 based on the assessments of the ensemble of three CMIP5 models for the RCP4.5 scenario.

Fig. 4. Distribution of the first harmonic phase (month) of surface air temperature along the VFD territory during the following periods: a) 2011–2030, b) 2080–2099 based on the assessments of the ensemble of three CMIP5 models for the RCP4.5 scenario.

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For citation: Shaikhulmardanova L.V., Guryanov V.V., Perevedentsev Yu.P. Changes in the climate conditions of the Volga Federal District during the 19th – 21st centuries. Uchenye Zapiski Kazanskogo Universiteta. Seriya Estestvennye Nauki, 2018, vol. 160, no. 3, pp. 531–541. (In Russian)

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