Forecasting hazardous and adverse weather in the Middle Urals using hydrodynamic atmosphere models

A.V. Bykov^*, N.A. Kalinin^**, E.V. Pishchal'nikova^***, A.N. Shikhov^****

Perm State University, Perm, 614990 Russia

E-mail: ^*blexx256@yandex.ru, ^**kalinin@psu.ru, ^***sinoptik.perm@yandex.ru, ^****shikhovan@gmail.com

Received December 15, 2017

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Abstract

The problem of verification of short-term numerical forecast of hazardous and adverse weather using the WRF mesoscale atmosphere model for the territory of the Middle Urals has been considered. The meteorological situations associated with the intense precipitation and convection development in Perm krai and Sverdlovsk oblast (Russia) in 2016 have been studied. The success of heavy snow forecast has been assessed by comparison with the data from weather stations. To forecast heavy snow, data from the GFS and GEM global models have been used along with the WRF model. The comparison with data from the WRF model has demonstrated that the GEM model provides the most accurate forecast. The forecasts of convective phenomena have been assessed with the help of the object-oriented approach based on the comparison of the real and forecasted positions of mesoscale convection-allowing systems. In a number of cases, the WRF model is able to forecast the place and time of adverse weather (including the local ones), which is impossible when the synoptic method is used. The main restriction for numerical forecast of convective hazardous weather is the inability to determine the spatial position of mesoscale convection-allowing systems. Understating the gust velocity of squall winds also occurs, but this problem can be solved by reducing the grid step to 2–3 km.

Keywords: convective precipitation, heavy snowfall, global atmospheric models, WRF-ARW model, short-range forecast

Acknowledgments. The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (projects nos. 16-45-590823-r_a, 17-45-590850-r_a, and 16-35-00410-mol-a).

Figure Captions

Fig. 1. The forecast of heavy snow in the Middle Urals on March 19–20, 2016 using the GEM model.

Fig. 2. The forecast of heavy snow in the Middle Urals on November 8–9, 2016 using the GEM model.

Fig. 3. A successful forecast of heavy precipitation events using the WRF model: a) June 27, 2016; b) June 9, 2016.

Fig. 4. A successful forecast of local heavy rainfalls using the WRF model: a) July 12, 2016; b) August 13, 2016.

Fig. 5. The comparison of the forecasted (a) and real (b) position of the mesoscale convection-allowing system, August 12, 2016.

Fig. 6. The forecast of maximum gust velocity using the WRF model, September 6, 2016.

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For citation: Bykov A.V., Kalinin N.A., Pishchal'nikova E.V., Shikhov A.N. Forecasting hazardous and adverse weather in the Middle Urals using hydrodynamic atmosphere models. Uchenye Zapiski Kazanskogo Universiteta. Seriya Estestvennye Nauki, 2018, vol. 160, no. 2, pp. 352–367. (In Russian)

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