Life strategies and the long-term climate-driven dynamics of the endemic Caucasian plant Fritillaria latifolia Willd.

R.H. Pshegusov a*, V.A. Chadaeva a**, I.V. Taniya b***, L.M. Abramova c****, A.N. Mustafina c*****

aTembotov Institute of Ecology of Mountain Territories, Russian Academy of Sciences, Nalchik, 360051 Russia

bRitsa Relict National Park, Gudauta, 384850 Republic of Abkhazia

cBotanical Garden-Institute of the Ufa Scientific Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ufa, 450080 Russia

E-mail: *p_rustem@inbox.ru, **balkarochka0787@mail.ru, ***agnaainat@mail.ru, ****abramova.lm@mail.ru, *****alfverta@mail.ru

Received April 23, 2019

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DOI: 10.26907/2542-064X.2019.4.571-589

For citation: Pshegusov R.H., Chadaeva V.A., Taniya I.V., Abramova L.M., Mustafina A.N. Life strategies and the long-term climate-driven dynamics of the endemic Caucasian plant Fritillaria latifolia Willd. Uchenye Zapiski Kazanskogo Universiteta. Seriya Estestvennye Nauki, 2019, vol. 161, no. 4, pp. 571–589. doi: 10.26907/2542-064X.2019.4.571-589. (In Russian)

Abstract

The rare endemic plant Fritillaria latifolia Willd. growing in subalpine meadows of the Western and Central Caucasus has the SR life strategy of life. The ecological and phytocenotic patience enables this species to withstand the impact of limiting factors, such as high anthropogenic load and interspecific competition, for a long period of time. F. latifolia rapidly invades free territories by increasing the number of its individuals (an explerent component of the life strategy) in case of moderate grazing and low interspecific competition. The mean air temperature in spring (below –8°C and above 4°C) and the maximum air temperature in February (below –4 °C and above 0 °C) are the major limiting abiotic factors for the species. Therefore, the abundance of F. latifolia is highest in mountainous areas of the Western Caucasus with a warmer climate. In accordance with the predicted trends of climate change by 2050, the geographical range of the species may expand by 4.40 times in the Central and Eastern Caucasus. The area of optimum habitats for the species, where the chance to find it is 80–100%, may increase by 10.51 times. A significant habitat reduction is also predicted for F. latifolia in the Western Caucasus.

Keywords: endemic species, Caucasus, mountain areas, life strategy, MaxEnt, spatial modeling, climate change, forecast

Figure Captions

Fig. 1. Scatterplot of Fritillaria latifolia cenopulations according to the discriminant analysis of plants biometric parameters in the coordinate system of axes of the canonical roots of two discriminant functions (Root 1 and Root 2). I, II, III – groups of cenopopulations subjected to the low, moderate, and high anthropogenic load.

Fig. 2. Age spectra of Fritillaria latifolia cenopopulations (1–16). pl – s – ontogenetic states; Y-axis – the percentage of age groups in cenopopulations.

Fig. 3. Distribution map of suitable habitats of Fritillaria latifolia at the present time (above) and by 2050, according to climate change (below). 0–0.4 – probability of finding the species for unsuitable habitats, 0.5–0.8 and over 0.8 – probability for suitable and optimal habitats, respectively.

Fig. 4. Values of the factors having the greatest contribution to the spatial distribution of F. latifolia. Y-axis – the predicted probability of suitable conditions for the species growth in the logistic output format, X-axis – the value of the variable. The black line represents the minimum probability of finding the species for suitable and optimal habitats (0.5). The graphs show the dependence of the predicted habitat suitability on the selected variable, according to its correlation with other variables.

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